The website says just over four days to go for the 20th Asian Games, being held this time in Nagoya city and the wider Aichi prefecture of Japan that it is part of. The Asian Games holds a special place in the hearts of every sports loving Indian simply because we willed it, we made it happen, way back in Delhi in 1951, when it was first held. It has been with us since we were a tiny tot as a country.
We've come a long way from those days, both as a country and a sporting nation and the excitement this time around, with social media amplifying the build up manifold, is palpable. Expectations are running sky high. Not without reason. After all, we broke the 100-medal (106 to be precise) barrier in the last Asiad in Hangzhou, China.
Our trajectory as a sporting power of the continent, which was on the upswing since the '94 Hiroshima Games, had finally reached its destination. Now was the time to ensure we remain there and consolidate as much as we can. An encouraging fourth place at the Commonwealth Games earlier this year, despite some of India's favourite sports not being there, has further boosted
The sporting ecosystem and the fans and dare I say the athletes themselves, clearly believe that India is on the cusp of something special, further bolstered by an encouraging fourth place finish at the Commonwealth Games earlier this year, despite some of India's favourite sports not being part of the schedule.
Ancy Sojan, the dimunitive woman long jumper from Keralam, has even gone to the extent of saying that she visualises herself atop the Asian Games podium listening to the national anthem while the IOA President, great quarter-miler of yesteryears herself, P.T.Usha, has said on record that "I am expecting the best ever performance." Then there was this media outlet which has argued for a 110-medal base case scenario among others.
Is there reason enough for this confidence or is it bravado? Have all aspects been thoroughly assessed? Specially the sporting ones.
Let's try and look at it objectively and as dispationately as possible.
A 118 athletes out of the contingent of 508 sent, will be involved in team sports and getting us a maximum of eight medals. Six among those are assured and will probably be gold (men's and women's cricket, hockey and kabaddi) while the men's volleyball and women's rugby teams are not that certain to medal.
Of the remaining 390, there are 30 shooters and 75 track and field athletes, leaving a total of 285 athletes in the remaining 30 sports that India are participating in, out of a total of 59.
Shooting and Track & Field remain key to India's success at the Games, accounting for 22 and 29 medals out of the 106 at the previous Hangzhou Games. So it will be important to do a deep dive into these two.
To begin with Indian Shooters will remain in contention for the same number of medal events as in Hangzhou, that is 27 out of the possible 28, this time around in Nagoya. They go into the Games with some proven performers, but also some real greenhorns at this level.
India's depth in the sport at the Asian level, should hold them good in the non-Olympic Team events, where they won a total of 10 of their 22 medals last time (five gold, four silver, one bronze). In the individuals, the two gold medalists from Hangzhou, Sift Kaur Samra and Palak Guliya, have not made it to the squad, but a host of multi medallists like Esha Singh, Aishwarya Tomar, Kynan Chenai, Ashi Choksey and Anantjeet Naruka have.
The challenges the Shooting Stars will have to guard against are quite a few. For one their men's pistol squad looks very thin on experience at this level and so does the women's shotgun troikas. In Rifle too, both among the men and women, success at this level does not has been almost non-existent among the majority.
One huge positive going for the squad will be that pistol ace Manu Bhaker hasn't won an individual medal at the Asiad and will be determined to make it count.
In Athletics, there are three major setbacks from last time. Two gold medallists in Neeraj Chopra and Annu Rani have withdrawn due to various reasons and a third Avinash Sable, is coming back from a long injury lay-off and is certainly not favourite for gold this time around. At most, these setbacks can be made up with some performers like Sreeshankar and Ancy upgrading their medal colour from last time.
Therefore that medal count of 51 from Shooting and Athletics is certainly under threat. Indian Shooters and Athletes will also have to contend with the fact that countries like Kazakhstan and Chinese Taipei have really upped their game in the last few years and hosts Japan, who had no medals in Shooting last time for example, will be going all guns blazing as hosts.
As we wrap this up, news comes in that a couple of our boys have already been eliminated in Teqball and then there will sports like Soft Tennis and Surfing, where we will be hard pressed to win medals.
That brings us to the remaining six, also some of our traditional strong sports, which boosted the Hangzhou tally i.e. Archery (9), Wrestling (6), Rowing (5), Squash (5), Boxing (4) and Badminton (3), accounting for 88 more athletes.
Even if we consider that these six will hold their levels, the losses in Shooting and Athletics will have to made up by about 190 athletes in 17 sporting disciplines for India to be sure of crossing the 100 mark this time around.
Here's hoping and praying they do!